COVID-19 Expert Speaks out on the Future of the Virus

Coronavirus, more commonly known as COVID-19 has taken the world by storm.  The symptoms include cough, fever, shortness of breath, chills, muscle pain, sore throat, loss of smell or taste, headache, etc. and can appear anywhere from 2 to 14 days after exposure to the virus. Many states are experiencing overcrowded hospitals, shortness of medical supplies such as masks, and overworked nurses and hospital staff. With quarantine and social distancing in place, many citizens inquire about next steps following this virus outbreak and life returning to normal.

Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, Dr. Michael Osterholm warns the world about the next steps involved with the coronavirus outbreak.  During a meeting with USA TODAY’s Editorial Board, Osterholm quotes, “this virus is going to keep going until it infects everybody it possibly can.  It surely won’t slow down until it hits 60 to 70 percent of the population.”  He goes on to infer that that is the percentage of people that would create immunity and stop the spread of the virus altogether.  

Osterholm is a highly recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology.  He is a Regents professor, (an honor awarded to faculty members who have made a unique contribution to the quality of the institution through accomplishments in teaching, research, or creative work) distinguished teaching professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, an adjunct professor in the Medical School, and a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, all at the University of Minnesota.  He also serves as the McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health.

Based on scientific research by Osterholm, he suggests that the new coronavirus may follow seasonal patterns like the flu, although new cases should begin to fade during the summer.  If COVID-19 leaves to only return in the fall, the number of cases could spike and overwhelm hospitals.  Osterholm states, “It’s the big peak that’s really going to do us in.  As much pain, suffering, death and economic disruption we’ve had, there’s been 5 to 20% of the people infected. That’s a long way to get to 60 to 70%.”

According to the Johns Hopkins Univeristy data tracker, there are nearly 80,000 deaths and more than 1.3 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States. Osterholm predicts that only an effective vaccine can slow the virus before a large portion of the population becomes infected and develops some level of immunity. In regard to the lockdown, Osterholm states that we “can’t lockdown for 18 months.”  He suggests that business and political leaders should find a way back to normalcy while adapting to a virus that will not immediately disappear.  He also does not believe that there has been a direct enough assessment on the harm of the economy that the virus will cause over the coming months as well as its disruption to international dealings. 

Michael Osterholm goes on to explain how we are still not prepared for what is to come with COVID-19.  It is important to understand the challenges we are facing as well as the importance of keeping our frontline healthcare workers safe.  He encourages us to learn from our mistakes to avoid the same struggles before the next pandemic emerges.  He states, “We all have to confront the fact there’s not a magic bullet, short of a vaccine, that’s going to make this go away. We’re going to be living with it. And we’re not having that discussion at all.”